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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."